I’ve read online that most Bull markets last about 1000 days, about 3 years, the current gold bull market run started in either 02 or 06 depending on how you look at it, but clearly it is outpacing inflation at the moment, how much farther do you think this bubble could go, or is it a bubble? When will it end?
My experience is that it is very difficult to predict how long a bull or bear market will last. Of course, historically, there are certain cycles and you can look at the historic data and see how long the upturns and the downturns lasted in the past.
This, however, does not predict how long the current bull market in gold will last. Many factors will play a role when a certain trend ends or begins.
Our approach to look at trends like for example the Gold bull market is to review the situation once per month. We believe that we do not need to predict when trends change as long as we have a fair possibility to recognize when trends change. At this moment we still see a strong uptrend for Gold.
Just as we cannot answer the question how much longer Gold will go up, we cannot answer the question how much higher it will go up. To be able to do that, you would need a model that includes inflation, economic growth, perception of gold as a safe heaven, strength of currencies like the Euro, the Dollar and the Yen and probably you need a crystal ball as well.
We believe that investors do not need to know how high and how much longer the trend will go. Recognizing a trend, riding that trend and stepping out when the trend changes is enough to beat the stock market indices in the long run.